TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – The most recent College of North Florida opinion ballot discovered Florida First Girl Casey DeSantis and Florida Republican Rep. Byron Donalds statistically tied within the 2026 Republican gubernatorial main, after the primary woman had held a hefty lead within the outlet’s earlier ballot.
The ballot confirmed DeSantis at 32%, Donalds at 29%, and 18% undecided. The ballot’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 share factors.
“After Trump’s endorsement of Donalds and as we get nearer to August 2026, DeSantis’s lead has all however disappeared, now contained in the margin of error for this ballot,” mentioned Dr. Michael Binder, college director of UNF’s Public Opinion Analysis Lab and a professor of political science.
The earlier ballot discovered DeSantis main the sphere by double digits: DeSantis’ 22% to Donalds’ 9%, and 40% undecided.
Donalds is the one declared candidate up to now, however the ballot requested about different hypothetical candidates like former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, a staunch ally of President Donald Trump, who drew 8% of the vote.
In the meantime, 10% chosen another person.
The ballot represents a 20-point bounce in Donalds’ help from UNF’s most up-to-date ballot on the race, which was in late 2023. On the similar time, DeSantis’ help elevated from 22% in 2023 to 32%, a 10-point improve.
“Regardless of the sphere, Byron Donalds can be Florida’s subsequent Governor as a result of he’s the one confirmed conservative endorsed by President Trump,” mentioned Ryan Smith, chief strategist for Donalds.
Donalds has been endorsed by Trump, which has helped bolster his numbers for the reason that 2023 ballot.
“It’s necessary to notice that amongst of us who voted within the final main, Donalds is 15 factors forward of DeSantis, and it’s seemingly those self same of us would be the ones voting subsequent August, so this race may not truly be as shut because it seems,” Binder added.
A ballot in Could additionally discovered that Trump bolstered Donalds’ numbers within the main, as much as a 19-point lead over DeSantis when made conscious of the president’s backing.
An inner ballot in March discovered Donalds led by 4 factors; however his lead prolonged to 22 factors when voters have been made conscious of the Trump endorsement.
Respondents’ high points have been property insurance coverage (20%), housing prices (15%), economic system, jobs and inflation (13%), and property taxes (12%).
The ballot was carried out amongst 797 energetic registered Republican voters in Florida from July 14—22.
